Klapisch: Magic '08 Ball

Friday, December 28, 2007

By BOB KLAPISCH
RECORD COLUMNIST

So you can't decide if you love or hate baseball these days, torn by a sport that's impossibly rich (a record $6 billion in revenue in 2007), popular (79.5 million in attendance, another record) but undermined by scandal (steroids).

Welcome to the ever-shifting tides of America's pastime, where rooting can be hazardous to your emotional health. After all, the all-time home run leader is under indictment on four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice, and the greatest right-handed pitcher of this generation allegedly has cheated his way to as many as three Cy Young awards.

Who's hot, who's not? Going into 2008, it's impossible to tell anymore. But with pitchers and catchers only six weeks away, here are a few early guesses.

HOT: Alex Rodriguez

The Yankee third baseman is having the kind of off-season that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens only can dream about: He won his second MVP award in three years, signed a $275 million, 10-year contract and was nowhere to be found in the Mitchell Report. Oh, and Scott Boras was all but shown the door, too.

Maybe that was all for theatrical effect, trashing the most powerful agent in professional sports. Scripted or not, A-Rod comes off as the winner in his return to the Yankees. The most important development, however, is that he's steroid-free and his reputation is clean. That will become increasingly important as Rodriguez approaches Bonds' HR total in the next seven to eight years.

NOT: Roger Clemens

The Rocket is going to great lengths in insisting he's never juiced; now his lawyers are launching their own investigation. Sorry, but they're hardly impartial, so any "findings" would be suspect. Clemens' upcoming appearance on "60 Minutes" will be worth watching, but if he's been so intent on proving trainer Brian McNamee wrong, why doesn't The Rocket take him to court? What's stopping Clemens from swearing under oath, in a deposition, that he's never used steroids?

And here's one more still unanswered question: Why didn't Clemens respond to the findings in the Mitchell Report when he was given a chance by investigators to refute the allegations?

HOT: The Mitchell Report

Yes, we know, the findings were incomplete. And had it not been for McNamee and Kirk Radomski, two witnesses who were being leaned on by the feds, Mitchell's final report would've been awfully thin. But the former senator never was going to find every juicer, not even after two years' work and $20 million invested. Instead, the report produced a sufficient anti-steroid backlash, enough to (hopefully) deter future cheaters.

And what about the players who've been named? It's unlikely Bud Selig will be able to punish them, but the stain upon their legacies is permanent.

NOT: Omar Minaya

The Mets' general manager is gambling heavily on Ryan Church and Brian Schneider to make Mets fans forget Lastings Milledge. The 22-year-old outfielder was, at times, immature, and certainly underdeveloped as a ballplayer, particularly on defense. But Milledge just might blossom in Washington under manager Manny Acta, which would serve only to embarrass the Mets' hierarchy.

If the Mets really were convinced Milledge's trade value had plummeted, they should've waited a year to try again. They would've done no worse than Schneider and Church.

Unless the Mets can somehow pry Johan Santana away from the Twins, they'll go into '08 without significantly improving the team that blew a seven-game lead with 17 to go. Minaya loves the art of the deal, but he's yet to work any magic this winter.

HOT: Bill Smith

Actually, we can't decide whether the Twins' rookie GM is playing the ultimate game of poker with the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets – or else has been traumatized into doing nothing. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt for refusing to accept secondary deals for Santana.

Truth is, the left-hander might be more attractive after opening day or closer to the trading deadline, when someone is likely to be panicking. If so, Smith's patience might pay dividends after all. At the very least, the Twins can play out the season with Santana, compete with the Indians and pick up two draft picks when he bolts as a free agent.

NOT: Tom Glavine

One of the game's classiest guys left Shea in tatters, allowing the Marlins seven runs in one-third of an inning on the final day of the season and putting the finishing touches on the worst collapse in regular-season history. To make matters worse, Glavine proceeded to tell reporters he wasn't all that torn up about it.

Agent Gregg Clifton insists "Tom definitely reacted" to his failure, but it would've helped Glavine's Met legacy if he had showed his disappointment more openly to a suffering fan base. Now we're wondering if Glavine will be cheered or booed when he returns to Shea in '08 with the Braves.

HOT: Tampa Bay Rays

Being "hot" in the AL East is a relative term; you're all but doomed if you're not the Yankees or Red Sox. But the Rays now have a respectable starting rotation following a trade with the Twins that brought them right-hander Matt Garza. Together with Scott Kazmir and James Shields, the Rays are certain to improve in '08.

NOT: Baltimore Orioles

Getting rid of Miguel Tejada (to the Astros) made sense, but couldn't they have done better than Luke Scott, the most notable of five players acquired in the swap?

HOT: Goose Gossage

The former Yankee reliever might be the only one elected on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, although Jim Rice's candidacy seems to be gaining momentum. But there's no question the Goose is home free, after coming within 4 percentage points of the required 75 percent last year.

NOT: Yankee payroll

GM Brian Cashman has been obsessed with holding down the overhead, so how do you think the Yankees felt after being slapped with a $24 million luxury-tax bill last week? In all, the Bombers shelled out $232 million in payroll and tax for 2007 – a figure that in part was offset by the 4.2 million in attendance.

The Bombers vaulted over the 40 percent tax threshold when they signed Clemens at midseason, giving him a prorated $28 million deal. With the tax included, the Yankees actually paid The Rocket $25 million for his 18 starts, during which he was 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA.

News source：http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkxMTMmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTcyMzg2OTAmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2